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Analysis of Climate Risk Level on Soybean Productivity (Glycine max L.) Using Cropsyst Model

Aminah, Abdullah, and Muliaty
Departement of Agronomy, Faculity of Agriculture, Universitas Muslim Indonesia, Makassar, Indonesia
Abstract—The aims of this research is to predict the planting time and the potential of soybean yield in Pangkep Regency as one of South Sulawesi's soybean production centers in extreme climate conditions using Cropsyst model. This research consist of several steps: (1) Step of validation, conducted to validate calibrated model (calibrated in Maros regency) with condition in Pangkep regency, (2) Step of model application, and (3) Step of strategy determination. The result of validation of soybean plant production in Pangkep regency shows the correlation between observation of production data and simulation of production data name-ly 0,933. It means that the model is suitable to predict the appropriate production for soybean planting at the research locations. RRMSE calculation result (Relative Root Mean Square Error) of the production data is 2.501%. Simulation results on climate risk analysis show that the potential production in the normal year is higher than El Nino extreme year while the production potential in La Nina year is higher than normal year and El Nino year. The strategy that can be offered in terms of the use of varieties and the best planting time for Pangkep regency in the case of el nino is Tanggamus varieties with the first planting time on April 4 (V1W1) due to it’s rate of yield reduction is 36.67%, while in the case of La Nina is Tanggamus varieties with the third planting time (V1W3) due to the rate of yield increasing is the highest one, namely 42.98%.
 
Index Terms—Cropsyst, El Nino, La Nina, RRMSE, soybean, and validation

Cite: Aminah, Abdullah, and Muliaty, "Analysis of Climate Risk Level on Soybean Productivity (Glycine max L.) Using Cropsyst Model," Journal of Advanced Agricultural Technologies, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 188-191, September 2018. Doi: 10.18178/joaat.5.3.188-191
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